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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

In the beginning, there was Menger. It was his Principles of Economics that reformulated — and really rescued — economic science from the theoretical errors of the old classical school.Menger set out to elucidate the precise nature of economic value, and to root economics firmly in the real-world actions of individual human beings. In Principles of Economics, he advances the theory that the marginal utility of goods is the source of their value, rather than the labor inputs that went into making them. The implication of this theory is that the individual mind is the source of economic value — a point that touched off the marginalist revolution and started a departure from the flawed classical view of economics.For this reason, Carl Menger (1840–1921) is considered to be the founder of the Austrian School of economics. Principles of Economics is the book that Ludwig von Mises said turned him into a real economist. What's striking is how, nearly a century and a half later, the book still retains the incredible power of both its prose and its relentless logic.The Mises Institute's new edition features a new foreword by Peter G. Klein, which summarizes Menger's contribution and places him in the history of ideas. Klein also explains Menger's continued relevance in present times. F.A. Hayek contributes the introduction.Economics students still say that it is the best introduction to economic logic ever written. The book also deserves the status of a seminal contribution to science in general. Truly, no one can claim to be well read in economics without having mastered Menger's argument.To search for Mises Institute titles, enter a keyword and LvMI (short for Ludwig von Mises Institute); e.g., Depression LvMI

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS: Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink “The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.” –Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999 “Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate “We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance “Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.” –National Review

Do you think you know something about Bitcoin and Austrian Economics? If so you may be ready for Cryptoeconomics. This is not a work for the uninitiated. The content is dense – it does not repeat itself. It is not a contribution to the echo chamber, will not show you how to set up a wallet, the future price, or what to do. Cryptoeconomics applies rational economic principles to Bitcoin, demonstrating flaws and unnecessary complexities in them, and in common understandings of Bitcoin. It will improve your understanding of both. Bitcoin requires a new, rigorous, and comprehensive discipline. This is it. Bitcoin is something new. It seems to defy understanding. Has there ever been a fixed supply money? Is there another case of production cost varying directly with product price? Is there anything else with a competitive yet fixed rate of transactability? To see past the hype, understand the value proposition, security model, and economic behavior, this may be your only source. Bitcoin is economics, technology, and security. Without incorporating all of these aspects, errors will be made. Economists, technologists, security experts, and even numerologists have attempted to explain it. Each brings a limited perspective, failing to incorporate essential aspects. The author found himself uniquely qualified to integrate them. His work in Bitcoin began with a hardware wallet. He spent a year analyzing threats, working with electronics design, hardware exploitation, and state surveillance experts. He chose the Libbitcoin software library, as Satoshi’s prototype was not factored for development and was largely financed by the Bitcoin Foundation, a corporate consortium. He later dedicated himself to Libbitcoin, eventually writing or editing all of its ~500,000 lines of code. Few have comparable experience with such a comprehensive Bitcoin stack. As a combat-experienced fighter pilot in the U.S. Navy he experienced state threats. He became a highly-qualified Strike Fighter Tactics Instructor, in which his primary role was tactics analysis and threat presentation. He also advised for the Navy on the Strike Fighter Training System network, Joint Strike Fighter, early GPS weapons, and F/A-18 systems. His understanding of the physical nature of all security was enhanced by decades of training in Japanese martial arts, achieving black belt rankings in five disciplines. His degree and experience in computer science mixed with extensive business experience, founding several companies. He has worked at IBM and as a Principle Architect at Microsoft, two of the world’s largest companies. The latter purchased his first startup, and his second was acquired by Veritas Capital. He was awarded three related U.S. patents. Eventually he became an angel investor, sharing his experience with other entrepreneurs. As CTO of his first company he published three computer security advisories via Computer Emergency Response Team. Each was derived entirely from his reading of user documentation. Later he earned a seat on the DHS Open Vulnerability Assessment Language advisory board for his work on software patching. In recent years he uncovered material security flaws in each of the first three iterations of a popular “secure element” hardware wallet, again from review of user documentation. Thirty years of self-study in free market economics was reinforced by extensive global travel. In visiting over 80 countries he has interacted with people on five continents. Still often traveling on a motorcycle with only a shoulder bag, he obtains intimate understanding of global economic realities. From Zimbabwean black market currency traders, to Tanzanian coffee pickers, Venezuelan refugees, Mongolian shepherds, Okinawan jazz musicians, Lao monks, etc. – the world is not as often presented. The ability to integrate these diverse and relevant experiences led to Cryptoeconomics. This is your next stop.

“In The Holographic Universe, Michael Talbot argues nothing less than that the universe is itself one giant hologram. Mr. Talbot thus explains out-of-body experiences, quantum-theory problems, the paranormal, and other unsolved riddles of brain and body.” — New York Times Now featuring a foreword by Lynne McTaggart, The Holographic Universe is a landmark work whose exciting conclusions continue to be proven true by today's most advanced physics, cosmology, and string theory. Nearly everyone is familiar with holograms—three-dimensional images projected into space with the aid of a laser. Two of the world's most eminent thinkers believe that the universe itself may be a giant hologram, quite literally a kind of image or construct created, at least in part, by the human mind. University of London physicist David Bohm, a protégé of Einstein and one of the world's most respected quantum physicists, and Stanford neurophysiologist Karl Pribram, an architect of our modern understanding of the brain, have developed a remarkable new way of looking at the universe. Their theory explains not only many of the unsolved puzzles of physics but also such mysterious occurrences as telepathy, out-of-body and near-death experiences, "lucid" dreams, and even religious and mystical experiences such as feelings of cosmic unity and miraculous healings.

Economist Bryan Caplan makes a bold case for unrestricted immigration in this fact-filled graphic nonfiction. American policy-makers have long been locked in a heated battle over whether, how many, and what kind of immigrants to allow to live and work in the country. Those in favor of welcoming more immigrants often cite humanitarian reasons, while those in favor of more restrictive laws argue the need to protect native citizens. But economist Bryan Caplan adds a new, compelling perspective to the immigration debate: He argues that opening all borders could eliminate absolute poverty worldwide and usher in a booming worldwide economy―greatly benefiting humanity. With a clear and conversational tone, exhaustive research, and vibrant illustrations by Zach Weinersmith, Open Borders makes the case for unrestricted immigration easy to follow and hard to deny.

- The information below is per-pack only - IN THE BOX: 50-foot XLR male to female microphone cable for XLR-compatible PA systems, speakers, and other sound equipment - CLEAR TRANSMISSION: All-copper conductors with inner copper spiral shielding to reduce noise interference - DURABLE DESIGN: Zinc alloy 3-pin connectors with nickeling; protective metal housing and flexible 6.0mm PVC jacket - USES: Designed for studio recording and live sound

Size: 50 Feet (Pack of 2)    Style: 1-Pack

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Transform Your Life with Dale Carnegie's Timeless Classic Are you ready to unlock the secrets to personal and professional success? Dale Carnegie's bestselling masterpiece, How to Win Friends & Influence People, has been helping millions of readers worldwide for decades-and now it's your turn! This life-changing guide is packed with actionable strategies to help you: Build meaningful relationships that expand your social and professional circle. Polish your communication skills to express ideas with clarity and confidence. Gain trust and influence others without creating resentment. Overcome challenges and develop the mental strength to stay motivated. What You'll Learn Master the Art of People Skills Discover Carnegie's proven techniques to handle people with ease, make a lasting impression, and win them over to your way of thinking. From fostering friendships to becoming a respected leader, this book provides all the tools you need. Timeless Principles for Success Learn how "You can make more friends in two months by becoming interested in other people than you can in two years by trying to get other people interested in you." These principles, just as relevant today as when they were first published, will help you navigate both personal and professional settings. Achieve Your Goals with Confidence Whether it's expanding your client base, earning more, or simply feeling more accomplished, Carnegie's step-by-step approach will make success seem effortless.

- *** 1 SET OF DRUMSTICKS INCLUDED *** - ✔ ANTI-SLIP DOUBLE-GRIP HANDLES - Designed to reduce the wear and tear on the strike zone of your fitness drumsticks. Added stylish black heat shrink grip on both ends. Handle portion with color is for comfortable grip in your hands, grip in strike zone to extend the life of your eco-friendly wood drumsticks. NEVER STRIKE PATTERNED OR COLORED ENDS TOGETHER - ✔ DURABILITY - CardioStix are manufactured with strong, durable Hickory Wood. These are NOT your community low quality, plastic cardio drum sticks you see on Amazon and in your class. CardioStix are designed to last! - ✔ 30-DAY WARRANTY - We are confident our CardioStix Drumming Sticks will be the best, most fun sticks you have ever used. We are a proud, family business out of Michigan, USA!

Color: DARK WOOD #5

- Perfecto para principiantes: Este juego de cuerdas clásico de nivel básico está diseñado específicamente para guitarristas principiantes con un equilibrio óptimo de calidez y proyección que es perfecto para estudiantes; Ideal para guitarras clásicas y guitaleles. - Tono cálido y duradero: este juego de nylon clásico tiene puntas atadas y contiene 3 agudos de nylon transparente y 3 bajos de nylon de cobre plateado para un tono cálido y duradero. - Cuerdas para todos los estilos: Desde jazz hasta metal pasando por rock, bluegrass, blues, folk y mucho más, fabricamos cuerdas de gran sonido para cada género y nivel, desde principiante hasta profesional, incluyendo cuerdas para bajo, acústicas, clásicas y de 12 cuerdas - Suena mejor, toca mejor: Compra toda nuestra colección de accesorios para guitarra, incluidos tensores, púas, correas, cejillas, afinadores, cables, fundas y estuches, además de cuerdas para banjo, mandolina, ukelele y mucho más. - Fabricadas en EE.UU.: Como el mayor y más respetado fabricante de accesorios musicales del mundo, las cuerdas de guitarra D'Addario se fabrican siguiendo las especificaciones más exigentes en nuestras vanguardistas instalaciones de producción de Nueva York.

Nombre de estilo: Hard Tension, 1-Pack   

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Color: Negro