336 products in Books

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

EL LIBRO DE GRAFOMOTRICIDAD QUE CONVIERTE CADA TRAZO EN UNA PEQUEÑA MISIÓN (3-5 AÑOS) Sabes que trazar líneas no es solo dibujar: es la base de la motricidad fina, la coordinación ojo-mano y la futura escritura. El reto está en conseguir que un niño de 3 a 5 años quiera repetir trazos sin aburrirse. Por eso, en este libro ningún trazo se hace porque sí. Paso 1: Traza líneas con sentido y en la dirección correcta Aquí cada línea tiene una misión: una recta hace despegar un cohete, una curva ayuda a saltar a una rana y una onda dibuja el vuelo de una mariposa. Cuando entienden el “para qué”, los peques se implican más y siguen el recorrido con más facilidad. Además, cada trazo incluye pauta y flechas, para reforzar la direccionalidad que usarán más adelante al escribir. La dificultad avanza en 6 niveles muy graduales, casi sin que el niño note el cambio. Así gana confianza, evita frustrarse y mejora el control del lápiz paso a paso. Paso 2: Repasa y colorea como un artista Los niños repasan trazos en dibujos de casas, trenes y simpáticos animales, y después los colorean. Una forma amena de seguir fortaleciendo la motricidad fina mientras desarrollan la creatividad. Ellos se divierten; su mano se entrena. Paso 3: Laberintos inspirados en cuentos clásicos ¿Alcanzará Alicia al conejo blanco? ¿Llegará Blancanieves a la casa de los enanitos? Estos laberintos ayudan a repasar los tipos de línea e incorporan un reto extra: planificar el recorrido. Así trabajan la orientación espacial, la atención y el razonamiento lógico mientras disfrutan de personajes que ya conocen. REGALA UN LIBRO PENSADO PARA LA FORMA EN QUE APRENDEN LOS NIÑOS DE 3 A 5 AÑOS. TU HIJO VERÁ MISIONES DIVERTIDAS. TÚ VERÁS CÓMO, TRAZO A TRAZO, GANA SEGURIDAD EN EL CONTROL DEL LÁPIZ.

Economist Bryan Caplan makes a bold case for unrestricted immigration in this fact-filled graphic nonfiction. American policy-makers have long been locked in a heated battle over whether, how many, and what kind of immigrants to allow to live and work in the country. Those in favor of welcoming more immigrants often cite humanitarian reasons, while those in favor of more restrictive laws argue the need to protect native citizens. But economist Bryan Caplan adds a new, compelling perspective to the immigration debate: He argues that opening all borders could eliminate absolute poverty worldwide and usher in a booming worldwide economy―greatly benefiting humanity. With a clear and conversational tone, exhaustive research, and vibrant illustrations by Zach Weinersmith, Open Borders makes the case for unrestricted immigration easy to follow and hard to deny.

In this instant New York Times bestseller, renowned economist Thomas Sowell demolishes the myths that underpin the social justice movement “Light on rhetoric, seriously heavy on data, and accessible in style, there is a reason why Sowell has been described as ‘among the most brilliant thinkers in the world today’ by Harvard University’s Steven Pinker and an ‘American sage’ by the Wall Street Journal.” – Washington Examiner The quest for social justice is a powerful crusade of our time, with an appeal to many different people, for many different reasons. But those who use the same words do not always present the same meanings. Clarifying those meanings is the first step toward finding out what we agree on and disagree on. From there, it is largely a question of what the facts are. Social Justice Fallacies reveals how many things that are thought to be true simply cannot stand up to documented facts, which are often the opposite of what is widely believed. However attractive the social justice vision, the crucial question is whether the social justice agenda will get us to the fulfillment of that vision. History shows that the social justice agenda has often led in the opposite direction, sometimes with catastrophic consequences.  More things are involved besides simply mistakes. All human beings are fallible, and social justice advocates may not necessarily make any more mistakes than others. But crusaders with an utter certainty about their mission are often undeterred by obstacles, evidence or even fatal dangers. That is where much of the Western world is today. The question is whether we will continue on heedlessly, past the point of no return.

AN INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER "Everything I want in a thriller. Sexy, shocking, and tense with an ending I never saw coming. Jeneva Rose is the queen of twists."--Colleen Hoover, #1 New York Times bestselling author The highly anticipated new thriller from the New York Times bestselling author of The Perfect Marriage and One of Us Is Dead You've opened up your house and your heart to a total stranger ... What could possibly go wrong? Grace Evans, an overworked New Yorker looking for a total escape from her busy life, books an Airbnb on a ranch in the middle of Wyoming. When she arrives at the idyllic getaway, she's pleased to find that the owner is a handsome man by the name of Calvin Wells--and he's eager to introduce her to his easygoing way of life. But there are things Grace discovers that she's not too pleased about: A lack of cell phone service. A missing woman. And a feeling that something isn't right with the ranch. Despite her uneasiness, the two bond and start to fall for one another. However, as her departure date nears, things change for the worse. What began as a playful romance soon turns into a complicated web of lies. Grace grows wary of Calvin as his infatuation for her seems to have morphed to obsession. Calvin fears that Grace is hiding something from him--including her reason for staying at his ranch to begin with. Vacation flings typically end in heartbreak, but for Grace and Calvin, it'll be far more destructive.

Want a comfortable way to talk with your kids about pornography? This newly revised edition of the original bestseller from Defend Young Minds makes that daunting discussion easy! Good Pictures Bad Pictures is a read-aloud story about a mom and dad who explain what pornography is, why it’s dangerous, and how to reject it. Featuring easy-to-understand science and simple analogies, this internationally-acclaimed book engages young kids to porn-proof their own brains. With Good Pictures Bad Pictures, your child will never be caught off guard by disturbing videos or peer pressure! The 5-point CAN DO Plan teaches kids exactly what to do to protect their young minds when they see pornography. “I am so grateful for this book! It was a great way to talk to my children about pornography without that awkward, uncomfortable feeling.” Lisa Parents don’t need to wonder what to say--simply read Good Pictures Bad Pictures to your child and move forward with confidence! You can even use this book before beginning the sex talks! Check out these new features in the second edition."Let's Talk!" discussion questions at the end of each chapter help kids deepen their understanding so they’ll be even more prepared to reject pornography.All new Tips for Parents and Caregivers section offers practical advice for raising porn-proof kids in the digital age..The most up-to-date science provides kids with even more powerful arguments against pornography.A beautifully redesigned interior makes it easier and more fun to read!

This little book was written to accomplish something big: economic literacy. It is intentionally kept very short to be inviting rather than intimidating. You will gain life-changing understanding of how the economy works in practically no time. Per Bylund will make you excited about what economics has to offer. Because economic literacy is mind-opening. Sound economic reasoning is an enormously powerful tool for understanding both the economy and society. Economic literacy uncovers what is going on under the surface and why things work out as they do. There is no magic to it. In fact, economic literacy is necessary to properly understand the world. Short, direct, axiomatically unassailable, and devastating to the mythology of modern economics. This book not only promote Mises' views, but refutes and attacks the tragicomic orthodoxy of today’s economics mainstream.

AN INSTANT #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER! Never stop...Never forget...Just remember. Charlie Wynwood and Silas Nash have been best friends since they could walk. They've been in love since the age of fourteen. But as of this morning...they are complete strangers. Their first kiss, their first fight, the moment they fell in love...every memory has vanished. Now Charlie and Silas must work together to uncover the truth about what happened to them and why. But the more they learn about the couple they used to be...the more they question why they were ever together to begin with. Forgetting is terrifying, but remembering may be worse. Heart-stopping and utterly captivating, the complete Never Never series, now available in one volume, will leave readers breathless and believing in the power of love. Perfect for fans of: * Verity, Too Late and The Wives * New Adult and Coming of Age stories * Angsty, romantic suspense * First loves and second chances * Colleen Hoover, Tarryn Fisher, Mia Sheridan and Lucy Score Don't miss the bestselling romantic mystery— Now available in a stunning hardcover Collector's Edition featuring nine exclusive illustrations, a foil-stamped case, beautifully sprayed edges and custom designed endpapers!

New York Times and USA Today bestselling author Lucy Score returns to Knockemout, Virginia, following fan-favorite Things We Never Got Over with Knox's brother Nash's story. Nash Morgan was always known as the good Morgan brother, with a smile and a wink for everyone. But now, this chief of police is recovering from being shot and his Southern charm has been overshadowed by panic attacks and nightmares. He feels like a broody shell of the man he once was. Nash isn't about to let anyone in his life know he's struggling. But his new next-door neighbor, smart and sexy Lina, sees his shadows. As a rule, she's not a fan of physical contact unless she initiates it, but for some reason Nash's touch is different. He feels it too. The physical connection between them is incendiary, grounding him and making her wonder if exploring it is worth the risk. Too bad Lina's got secrets of her own, and if Nash finds out the real reason she's in town, he'll never forgive her. Besides, she doesn't do relationships. Ever. A hot, short-term fling with a local cop? Absolutely. Sign her up. A relationship with a man who expects her to plant roots? No freaking way. Once she gets what she's after, she has no intention of sticking around. But Knockemout has a way of getting under people's skin. And once Nash decides to make Lina his, he's not about to be dissuaded…even if it means facing the danger that nearly killed him.

An inside look at modern open source software development and its influence on our online social world. Open source software, in which developers publish code that anyone can use, has long served as a bellwether for other online behavior. In the late 1990s, it provided an optimistic model for public collaboration, but in the last 20 years it’s shifted to solo operators who write and publish code that's consumed by millions. In Working in Public, Nadia Asparouhova takes an inside look at modern open source software development, its evolution over the last two decades, and its ramifications for an internet reorienting itself around individual creators. Asparouhova, who interviewed hundreds of developers while working to improve their experience at GitHub, argues that modern open source offers us a model through which to understand the challenges faced by online creators. She examines the trajectory of open source projects, including: * The GitHub platform for hosting and development * The structures, roles, incentives, and relationships involved in open source projects * The often-overlooked maintenance required of its creators * The costs of production that endure through an application’s lifetime. Asparouhova also scrutinizes the role of platforms like Twitter, Facebook, Twitch, YouTube, and Instagram, which reduce infrastructure and distribution costs for creators but which massively increase the scope of interactions with their audience. Open source communities are increasingly centered around the work of individual developers rather than teams. Similarly, if creators, rather than discrete communities, are going to become the epicenter of our online social systems, we need to better understand how they work—and we can do so by studying what happened to open source.

The New 2018  ebook best selling series has begun!  William D. Danko's True Prosperity ~ Takes More Than Money.~~~ Enter the new title and get your copy today!~~~~~~~~~The bestselling The Millionaire Next Door identifies seven common traits that show up again and again among those who have accumulated wealth. Most of the truly wealthy in this country don't live in Beverly Hills or on Park Avenue-they live next door. This new edition, the first since 1998, includes a new foreword for the twenty-first century by Dr. Thomas J. Stanley.

One of Silicon Valley’s most successful angel investors shares his rules for investing in startups. There are two ways to make money in startups: create something valuable―or invest in the people that are creating valuable things. Over the past twenty-five years, Jason Calacanis has made a fortune investing in creators, spotting and helping build and fund a number of successful technology startups―investments that have earned him tens of millions of dollars. Now, in this enlightening guide that is sure to become the bible for twenty-first century investors, Calacanis takes potential angels step-by-step through his proven method of creating wealth in venture capital: startups. As Calacanis makes clear, you can get rich―even if you came from humble beginnings (his dad was a bartender, his mom a nurse), didn’t go to the right schools, and weren’t a top student. The trick is learning how angel investors think. Calacanis takes you inside the minds of these successful moneymen, helping you understand how they prioritize and make the decisions that have resulted in phenomenal profits. He guides you step by step through the process, revealing how leading investors evaluate early-stage companies, calculating the risks and rewards, and explains how the best startups leverage relationships with angel investors for the best results. Whether you’re an aspiring investor or a budding entrepreneur, Angel will inspire and educate you on all the ins of outs. Buckle up for a wild ride into the world of angel investing! * Angel Investing 101: Learn the step-by-step process for evaluating new ventures, calculating risks and rewards, and spotting the technology startups that can generate massive wealth. * Silicon Valley Secrets: Get an insider’s guide to how the best angel investors think, prioritize, and make the decisions that result in phenomenal, life-changing profits. * Mastering Deal Flow: Discover how to get access to the best deals and how the top founders leverage relationships with their investors for the best results, even if you didn’t go to the right schools. * Startup Valuation: Understand the difference between pre-traction and post-traction companies, what determines a seed round valuation, and when to double down on your winners.