NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Immerse yourself in this meticulously crafted edition of the "Ethiopian Bible in English 88 Books" a comprehensive compilation that opens doors to the profound wisdom and spiritual heritage of Ethiopia. Discover the richness of the Ethiopian Bible in English Complete which includes the Apocrypha Complete, Psalms, Enoch, and the Lost Books of The Bible, allowing exploration of ancient texts omitted from standard editions, providing profound insights into Ethiopian religious tradition. Delve into the poetic beauty and spiritual depth with this unique edition offering for the first time in English access to all 88 books of the Ethiopian Bible: * Apocrypha complete: Esdras (III and IV), Tobit, Judith, Additions to the book of Esther, Wisdom of Solomon, Prologue to Wisdom of Jesus Son of Sirach, Baruch, Letter of Jeremiah, Prayer of Azariah, Susanna, Bel and the Dragon, Prayer of Manasseh, 1, 2 and 3 Meqabyan. * Old Testament: Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers, Deuteronomy, Joshua, Judges, Ruth, 1 Samuel (I Kingdoms), 2 Samuel (II Kingdoms), 1 Kings (III Kingdoms), 2 Kings (IV Kingdoms), Chronicles 1 and 2, Jubilees, Enoch, Ezra (I Ezra), Nehemiah (II Ezra), Esther, Job, Psalms, Psalms 151, Proverbs Messale and Tagsas, Ecclesiastes, Song of Solomon, Isaiah, Jeremiah, Lamentations, Ezekiel, Daniel, Hosea, Joel, Amos, Obadiah, Jonah, Micah, Nahum, Habakkuk, Zephaniah, Haggai, Zechariah, Malachi. * New Testament: Matthew, Mark, Luke, John, Acts, Romans, Corinthians 1 ad 2, Galatians, Ephesians, Philippians, Colossians, Thessalonians 1 and 2, Timothy 1 and 2, Titus, Philemon, Hebrews, James, Peter 1 and 2, John 1, 2 and 3, Jude, Revelation, The First Epistle of Clement, The Second Epistle of Clement and The Book of Adam and Eve. Why Choose This Book? * Authentic translations in English ensuring the preservation of the original texts' integrity and nuance. * Easy-to-read font/typeface enhances readability for effortless immersion in the scriptures. * Enjoy a comprehensive collection encompassing all 88 books of the Ethiopian Bible, offering an immersive reading experience. Embark on a journey of spiritual discovery and scholarly exploration, enhance your understanding of ancient scripture, delve into profound wisdom, and experience the richness of Ethiopian religious heritage. Purchase your copy now and receive it comfortably at home. Your spiritual journey awaits!
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER / #1 WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER / #1 PUBLISHER'S WEEKLY BESTSELLER / #1 AMAZON BESTSELLER No American leader has accomplished more for his state than Governor Ron DeSantis. Now he reveals how he did it. He played baseball for Yale, graduated with honors from Harvard Law School, and served in Iraq and in the halls of Congress. But in all these places, Ron DeSantis learned the same lesson: He didn’t want to be part of the leftist elite. His heart was always for the people of Florida, one of the most diverse and culturally rich states in the union. Since becoming governor of the Sunshine State, he has fought—and won—battle after battle, defeating not just opposition from the political left, but a barrage of hostile media coverage proclaiming the end of the world. When he implemented COVID-19 policies based on evidence and focused on freedoms, the press launched a smear campaign against him, yet Florida’s economy thrived, its education system outperformed the nation, and Florida’s COVID mortality rate for seniors was lower than that in thirty-eight states. When he enacted policies to keep leftist political concepts like critical race theory and woke gender ideology out of Florida’s classrooms, the media demagogued his actions, but parents across Florida rallied to his cause. Dishonest attacks from the media don’t deter him. In fact, DeSantis keeps racking up wins for Floridians. In 2022, the governor delivered a historic, record-setting victory, winning by nearly 20 points and more than 1.5 million votes. A firsthand account from the blue-collar boy who grew up to take on Disney and Dr. Fauci, The Courage to Be Free delivers something rare from an elected leader: stories of victory. This book is a winning blueprint for patriots across the country. And it is a rallying cry for every American who wishes to preserve our liberties. This is more than a memoir—it’s a playbook for victory. * Conservative Leadership: From the ball fields of Yale to the halls of Congress and the battlefields of Iraq, discover the firsthand account of how a blue-collar kid developed the courage to lead. * Fighting Woke Ideology: Go behind the scenes of the battles against leftist concepts like critical race theory and woke corporations like Disney, and learn how to win the fight for common sense. * Economic Freedom: Learn the principles behind Florida’s thriving economy, which outperformed the nation by rejecting disastrous lockdowns and focusing on individual liberty. * An American Revival: A detailed blueprint for patriots on how to defeat the leftist elite, stand up to a hostile media, and preserve American liberties for future generations.
What distinguishes the truly exceptional from the merely great? After five years of writing The Profile, Polina Marinova Pompliano has studied thousands of the most successful and interesting people in the world and examined how they reason their way through problems, unleash their creativity, and perform under extreme pressure. The highest performers don’t use tricks or hacks to achieve greatness. They use mental frameworks that fundamentally change the way they see the world. They’ve learned how to unlock their hidden genius in order to reach their full potential. This book will help you do the same. After learning from the world’s most successful people featured inside, you will have a mental toolkit to help you tackle thorny problems, navigate relationships, and use creativity and resilience in times of uncertainty.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * MORE THAN ONE MILLION COPIES SOLD “A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well. A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years. In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.
The Reign of Quantity and the Signs of the Times is René Guénon's most prophetic work. Having seen his telling analysis of Western culture, The Crisis of the Modern World, swiftly overtaken by events, he based this his final and most profound critique squarely on changeless metaphysical principles. He exposes with his fabled clarity the precise nature of the modern deviation, devoting special attention to the part played by modern philosophy and science (with their accompanying notions of progress and evolution) in the formation of the industrial and democratic society that we now regard as "normal." He sees history as a descent from Form (or Quality) toward Matter (or Quantity). But following after the Reign of Quantity (modern materialism and the "rise of the masses"), Guénon predicts a reign of "inverted quality" just before the end of the age: the triumph of the "counter-initiation" the kingdom of Antichrist. Although Guénon bases his critique on "abstract" principles, his examples are satisfyingly concrete: his remarks on "the degeneration of coinage" could easily be updated to include the transformation of money into electronically-stored digital information; his treatment of "the significance of metallurgy" as regards its occult dangers points directly to our own well-founded fear of such man-made elements as plutonium; and his chapter on the "cracks in the Great Wall" gives solid metaphysical grounding to our twenty-first century demonology, including the UFO phenomenon. This text is considered the magnum opus among Guénon's works of civilizational criticism, as is Symbols of Sacred Science among his studies on symbols and cosmology, and Man and His Becoming according to the Vedanta among his more purely metaphysical works. The Reign of Quantity gives a concise but comprehensive view of the present state of affairs in the world, as it appears from the point of view of the 'ancient wisdom', formerly common both to the East and to the West, but now almost entirely lost sight of. The author indicates with his fabled clarity and directness the precise nature of the modern deviation, and devotes special attention to the development of modern philosophy and science, and to the part played by them, with their accompanying notions of progress and evolution, in the formation of the industrial and democratic society which we now regard as 'normal'. Guénon sees history as a descent from Form (or Quality) toward Matter (or Quantity); but after the Reign of Quantity-modern materialism and the 'rise of the masses'-Guénon predicts a reign of 'inverted quality' just before the end of the age: the triumph of the 'counter-initiation', the kingdom of Antichrist. This text is considered the magnum opus among Guénon's texts of civilizational criticism, as is Symbols of Sacred Science among his studies on symbols and cosmology, and Man and His Becoming according to the Vedanta among his more purely metaphysical works.
Bostrom’s last book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (OUP, 2014), sparked a global conversation on AI that continues and widens to this day. That book, which despite its academic style became a New York Times bestseller, focused on what would happen if AI goes wrong. But what if AI goes right? Suppose we succeed in developing superintelligence safely and that we make good use of the almost magical powers this unlocks. We would then achieve full unemployment. More than that, we would transition into a “post-instrumental condition," in which human effort is not needed for any practical purpose. This would be a condition of material abundance. Human nature itself would become fully malleable. In such a solved world, what would be the point of human existence? What could give meaning to our lives? Which old values will we have to sacrifice, and which new values will we be able to realize to wonderful degrees? Deep Utopia—a work that is again years ahead of its time—takes the readers on a journey into some of the most profound questions that arise as we dissolve the limits of our current mode of being. It is a lush, playful, difficult, and human text that interleaves fiction stories and philosophical lectures that show us a glimpse of a different kind of existence–one that might be ours in the not-so-distant future. Winner of 7 Book Awards! 2024 AMERICAN LEGACY BOOK AWARDS WINNER 2024 LIVING NOW BOOK AWARD EVERGREEN GOLD MEDAL WINNER 2024 PENCRAFT BOOK AWARDS 1ST PLACE WINNER
“Stasiland demonstrates that great, original reporting is still possible. . . . A heartbreaking, beautifully written book. A classic.” — Claire Tomalin, Guardian “Books of the Year” Winner of the Samuel Johnson Prize for Non-Fiction: a powerfully moving account of people who heroically resisted the communist dictatorship of East Germany, and of people who worked for its secret police, the Stasi. Anna Funder delivers a prize-winning and powerfully rendered account of the resistance against the German Democratic Republic’s communist dictatorship in these harrowing, personal tales of life behind the Iron Curtain—and, especially, of life under the iron fist of the Stasi, East Germany’s brutal state security force in one of history's most notorious surveillance states. In the tradition of Frederick Taylor’s The Berlin Wall and Philip Gourevitch’s We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will be Killed With Our Families, Funder’s Stasiland is a masterpiece of investigative reporting and a vital work of twentieth-century history, written with novelistic vividness and the compelling intensity of a universal, real-life story. Through meticulous reporting, Funder reveals the haunting reality of life in the GDR―a world of quiet heroes, conflicted enforcers, and the ghosts left behind by a fallen state. * A Chilling Surveillance State: Delve into the inner workings of the Stasi, a secret police force that used everything from collecting “smell samples” in jars to a vast network of informers to control the populace. * Unforgettable True Stories: Meet Miriam, who became an Enemy of the State at sixteen for distributing leaflets, and Frau Paul, who made an impossible choice to protect a stranger at the cost of seeing her own critically ill child. * Life Behind the Berlin Wall: Experience the strange, often absurd reality of the German Democratic Republic, a country that no longer exists but whose secrets still haunt the present day. * The Perpetrators’ Perspective: Hear directly from the men who served the regime, from professors who taught the art of recruiting informers to the officer who physically painted the line where the Wall would be built.
BLACK & WHITE VERSION Peercoin (PPC) is a decentralised cryptocurrency similar to Bitcoin. It was the first cryptocurrency to introduce a new form of timestamping (proof of stake) that allows users of the wallet to receive a 1% rate of return on their holdings per year. This book is a detailed history of the first year of Peercoin up to the 19th of August 2013 (the time at which the blockchain had been usable for one year by the general public).
[Read by William Hughes] An unimpeachable classic work in political philosophy, intellectual and cultural history, and economics, The Road to Serfdom has inspired and infuriated politicians, scholars, and general readers for half a century. Originally published in 1944 -- when Eleanor Roosevelt supported the efforts of Stalin, and Albert Einstein subscribed lock, stock, and barrel to the socialist program -- The Road to Serfdom was seen as heretical for its passionate warning against the dangers of state control over the means of production. For F. A. Hayek, the collectivist idea of empowering government with increasing economic control would lead not to a utopia but to the horrors of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader's Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial bestseller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century. With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom is be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.
This little book was written to accomplish something big: economic literacy. It is intentionally kept very short to be inviting rather than intimidating. You will gain life-changing understanding of how the economy works in practically no time. Per Bylund will make you excited about what economics has to offer. Because economic literacy is mind-opening. Sound economic reasoning is an enormously powerful tool for understanding both the economy and society. Economic literacy uncovers what is going on under the surface and why things work out as they do. There is no magic to it. In fact, economic literacy is necessary to properly understand the world. Short, direct, axiomatically unassailable, and devastating to the mythology of modern economics. This book not only promote Mises' views, but refutes and attacks the tragicomic orthodoxy of today’s economics mainstream.
Some technologies change industries. Others change civilization. Is Bitcoin simply a new form of money—or is it redefining the relationship between individuals, property, and the State? In The Philosophy of Bitcoin, philosopher and legal scholar Álvaro D. María explores the deeper ideas behind one of the most significant technological innovations of the modern era. Rather than focusing on markets or price movements, he examines Bitcoin through the lenses of philosophy, political theory, economics, history, and law, revealing why its greatest impact may extend far beyond finance. Originally published in Spanish to widespread acclaim, this influential work introduced readers to a new way of thinking about Bitcoin: not merely as a digital asset, but as a civilizational innovation capable of transforming institutions, incentives, and the organization of society itself. Inside, you'll explore: • The philosophical foundations of money and property • How Bitcoin challenges traditional ideas about the State and political power • Why technological breakthroughs have historically transformed civilization • The evolution of individual sovereignty in the digital age • New models of cooperation, governance, and social coordination • Why Bitcoin may represent one of the defining innovations of the twenty-first century Drawing on centuries of philosophical thought while remaining firmly grounded in modern economics and technology, D. María makes complex ideas accessible without sacrificing intellectual depth. His work bridges philosophy, law, economics, and political theory into a compelling examination of the ideas reshaping our world. Praised by economists, entrepreneurs, scholars, and Bitcoin pioneers—including Samson Mow, Gabriel Kurman, Prince Philip of Serbia, Javier Bastardo, and Lunaticoin—The Philosophy of Bitcoin has become one of the most respected philosophical works in Bitcoin literature. Whether you're interested in Bitcoin, political philosophy, Austrian economics, law, history, or the future of civilization, this book offers a thoughtful framework for understanding why Bitcoin has become far more than a monetary innovation. A lasting addition to the library of anyone seeking to understand the philosophical foundations of Bitcoin and the future of human freedom.