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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

In the beginning, there was Menger. It was his Principles of Economics that reformulated — and really rescued — economic science from the theoretical errors of the old classical school.Menger set out to elucidate the precise nature of economic value, and to root economics firmly in the real-world actions of individual human beings. In Principles of Economics, he advances the theory that the marginal utility of goods is the source of their value, rather than the labor inputs that went into making them. The implication of this theory is that the individual mind is the source of economic value — a point that touched off the marginalist revolution and started a departure from the flawed classical view of economics.For this reason, Carl Menger (1840–1921) is considered to be the founder of the Austrian School of economics. Principles of Economics is the book that Ludwig von Mises said turned him into a real economist. What's striking is how, nearly a century and a half later, the book still retains the incredible power of both its prose and its relentless logic.The Mises Institute's new edition features a new foreword by Peter G. Klein, which summarizes Menger's contribution and places him in the history of ideas. Klein also explains Menger's continued relevance in present times. F.A. Hayek contributes the introduction.Economics students still say that it is the best introduction to economic logic ever written. The book also deserves the status of a seminal contribution to science in general. Truly, no one can claim to be well read in economics without having mastered Menger's argument.To search for Mises Institute titles, enter a keyword and LvMI (short for Ludwig von Mises Institute); e.g., Depression LvMI

This is one man’s chronicle, at times indignant and at others reflective, of an extraordinary moment in the history of the world, a moment of crisis whose eventual resolution will have far-reaching consequences for our children and their children. The author is Professor Thomas Harrington. His primary field of study is Hispanic culture and history, with a focus on Catalonian language, history and nationalism. With a deep knowledge of the life of a particular region and language group, he cultivated a keen insight into the difference between what is authentic and organic to a social order and what is exogenous and imposed by a ruling-class structure. He has a particular curiosity about the latter. His profound awareness of this power in operation in world events allowed him to see what so many others missed: namely he knew something was very off about the Covid response from the beginning. It’s to the eternal disgrace of so many elites in the political, economic, cultural, and academic world that so many participated in the “great reset” and, further, that so many who did not participate remained silent even as essential social, market, and cultural functioning was systematically dismantled by force with the full participation of the commanding heights of society. Privileged people, whose educational background putatively provided them with greater critical thinking skills than most, and hence an enhanced ability to see through the barrage of propaganda, fell immediately and massively into line. Not only did we see them overwhelmingly accept the government’s repressive, unproven and often patently unscientific measures to contain the Covid virus, but watched many of them emerge online and in other public forums as semi-official enforcers of repressive Government policies and Big Pharma marketing pitches. They mocked and ignored world-class doctors and scientists, and anyone else who expressed ideas that were at variance with official government policies. They told us, ridiculously, that science was not a continuous process of trial and error, but a fixed canon of immutable laws, while promoting, on that same absurd basis, the establishment and enforcement of medical apartheid within families and communities. In the name of keeping their children safe from a virus that could do them virtually no harm, they greatly impeded their long-term social, physical and intellectual development through useless mask-wearing, social distancing and screen-based learning. And in the name of protecting the elderly, they promulgated medically useless rules that forced many older people to suffer and die alone, deprived of the comfort of their loved ones. Many of these people, who by dint of their educational backgrounds should have found it more easy than most to go to the primary sources of scientific information on the virus and the measures taken to lessen its impact, chose in large numbers—with doctors being very prominent among them—to instead “educate” themselves on these important matters with curt summaries derived from the mainstream press, social media or Pharma-captured agencies like the CDC and the FDA. This, paradoxically, while millions of intrepid and less credentialed people with a greater desire to know the truth, often became quite knowledgeable about the actual state of ’the science.” This devastating case of class abdication—which essentially turned the old adage about “To whom much is given, much is expected” on its head—is a central focus of this book. It was the treason of experts.

TIME-TESTED, ROCK-SOLID ADVICE THAT HAS CARRIED THOUSANDS OF NOW SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE UP THE LADDER OF SUCCESS IN THEIR BUSINESS AND PERSONAL LIVES A classic book that gave birth to the self-help industry, How to Win Friends and Influence People is a phenomenal bestseller, having sold over 15 million copies worldwide and still going strong. It has been translated into 31 languages and is on Time magazine's list of 100 most influential books of all time. Dale Carnegie offers practical and proven advice on how to deal with people and understand them in order to get along well with them to make your life more rewarding. Carnegie believed that financial success, to a very large extent, depends on 'the ability to express ideas, to assume leadership, and to arouse enthusiasm among people.' He teaches these skills through fundamental principles of dealing with people so that they feel important and appreciated. He also details techniques for handling people without making them feel manipulated. This book will teach you how to: ●Think new thoughts, get out of a mental rut, acquire new visions and discover new ambitions ● Increase your popularity and make friends quickly and easily ● Increase your influence, prestige and the ability to get things done ●Become a better speaker and a more effective conversationalist ●Avoid arguments and keep your communication smooth and pleasant Carnegie illustrates his points with anecdotes of historical figures, leaders of the business world, and everyday folks. One of the world's best-known self-made billionaire, Warren Buffett, has said that this is the book that changed his life.

Bestselling author Michael Maloney makes a compelling case that the greatest opportunity of this generation to build and protect your wealth is here. The rocket fuel for any bull market, and the tinder for a bear one, are the economic and political conditions of the day... And Mike shows today is like never before. The magnitude of the potential gains become obvious when you compare today's conditions to the precious metals bull market of the 1970s. In the '70s gold rose more than 25 times its original price, and silver more than 41 times. Today there are approximately twice as many ounces of gold available for investors to buy, but globally, there are also: * 18 times more people that can access, and legally buy, precious metals. * 55 times more currency. * 56 times more millionaires. * 200 times more billionaires. * 220 times more available consumer credit. * 49 times greater global stock market cap. * And that's just the tip of the iceberg. While stocks, real estate, crypto, bonds, and nearly every major asset class have boomed, gold and silver have been largely ignored, and are now among the world's last, and most, undervalued assets. But a shift is underway. The coming flight to safety will be staggering... and gold and silver will be the big winners. After accurately predicting the crisis of 2008, Mike now presents unassailable data that an even greater crisis is coming. As you turn the pages, you'll understand the enormity of it, that we have passed an economic point of no return, and that there is no avoiding it. The old 'normal' is just not coming back. The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st-Century provides a roadmap for navigating the coming economic storm. The knowledge it contains will help you protect yourself, your family, and your assets through the turbulent times ahead. Most will be devastated, many will be totally ruined, but those few who are prepared can massively increase their wealth.

This New York Times bestseller and business classic has been fully updated for a world where skilled communication is more important than ever. The book that revolutionized business communications has been updated for today’s workplace. Crucial Conversations provides powerful skills to ensure every conversation―especially difficult ones―leads to the results you want. Written in an engaging and witty style, it teaches readers how to be persuasive rather than abrasive, how to get back to productive dialogue when others blow up or clam up, and it offers powerful skills for mastering high-stakes conversations, regardless of the topic or person. This new edition addresses issues that have arisen in recent years. You’ll learn how to: * Respond when someone initiates aCrucial Conversationwith you * Identify and address the lag time between identifying a problem and discussing it * Communicate more effectively across digital mediums When stakes are high, opinions vary, and emotions run strong, you have three choices: Avoid a crucial conversation and suffer the consequences; handle the conversation poorly and suffer the consequences; or apply the lessons and strategies of Crucial Conversations and improve relationships and results. Whether they take place at work or at home, with your coworkers or your spouse, Crucial Conversations have a profound impact on your career, your happiness, and your future. With the skills you learn in this book, you'll never have to worry about the outcome of a Crucial Conversation again.

In the vast, boundless expanse of Plurality, each life is a unique and precious existence...Regardless of how perilous external circumstances may be...(l)et us take positive action to allow the seeds of shared goodness to break through the earth and blossom into flower of empathy, joy and harmony. — His Holiness the Dalai Lama XIV of Tibet In a technologically advanced, politically challenging, and rapidly evolving 21st century, what does a free and open future look like? Glen, Audrey and their coauthors offer a compelling view of a way forward. — Vitalik Buterin, Founder of Ethereum Democracy has been a confrontation between opposing values. In Taiwan, however, it has become a conversation among a diversity of values. Audrey Tang has shown us how to create a "digital democracy" that transcends the constraints of ideology - that is the major contribution of this book. — Tsai Ing-wen, President of the ROC (Taiwan) They offer us a portal into a future where technology supports democracy, pluralism, and broad human flourishing. We know this future is possible because Tang has been building it in Taiwan. The conceptual foundations laid here usher in a much-needed paradigm change for modern life. — Danielle S. Allen, political philosopher, James Bryant Conant University Professor at Harvard, MacArthur Fellow, and author of Our Declaration and Cuz Plurality reads like optimistic sci-fi, already happening in real life! Can democracies around the world follow in Taiwan’s footsteps to upgrade free society for the digital age? Fingers crossed for a happy ending. — Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Emmy-winning artist and founder of HITRECORD Digital technology threatens to tear free and open societies apart through polarization, inequality, and loneliness. But in the decade since the weekslong occupation of their parliament, a diverse island of resilience has shown another way is possible. Taiwan achieved inclusive, technology-fueled growth, overcame the pandemic without lockdowns and the infodemic without takedowns, entrusted its people to tackle shared challenges like environmental protection while capitalizing on a culture of innovation to “hack the government.” Here, the architects of Taiwan’s internationally acclaimed digital democracy share the secret of their success. Plurality (symbolized ⿻) harnesses digital tools not to replace humans or trust, but to channel the potential energy in social diversity that can erupt in conflict instead for progress, growth and beauty. From intimate digitally empowered telepathy to global trade running on social networks rather than money, ⿻ offers tools to radically enrich relationships while leaving no one behind. ⿻ thus promises to transform every sector from healthcare to media, as illustrated by the way it has been written: as a chorus of open, self-governing collaboration of voices from around the globe. Their work in public on this openly available text shows — as well as tells — how everyone from a devout African farmer to a Hollywood celebrity can help build a more dynamic, harmonious and inclusive world. E. Glen Weyl is Founder of RadicalxChange, Microsoft Research's Plural Technology Collaboratory, & Plurality Institute & co-author of Radical Markets. Audrey Tang is the inaugural Minister of Digital Affairs in Taiwan & the inaugural ⚧️ minister in the 🌐. A global ⿻ community of dozens collaborated to create this first-ever open-source self-governed book harnessing tools described within. You are invited to join us at https://www.plurality.net

A bold and eye-opening exposé on how power and propaganda distort the news, now more relevant than ever • With an updated introduction “[A] compelling indictment of the news media’s role in covering up errors and deceptions in American foreign policy.”—The New York Times Book Review Renowned scholars Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky reveal how U.S. news media, far from being independent watchdogs, often function as tools of elite influence. With probing analysis, they present their Propaganda Model, a framework that explains how systemic bias shapes the stories we’re told, the voices we hear, and the truths that remain hidden. Through deeply researched case studies, from the Vietnam War to coverage of “worthy” vs. “unworthy” victims, Manufacturing Consent exposes the structural forces that drive news organizations to reinforce power rather than question it. It’s a sobering portrait of a media system more interested in maintaining order than informing the public. This edition includes an introduction updating key examples and expanding the Propaganda Model’s relevance to issues like the coverage of NAFTA, the media’s treatment of global protests, and environmental regulation. Manufacturing Consent is a powerful assessment of how propagandistic the U.S. mass media are, how they systematically fail to live up to their self-image as providers of the kind of information that people need to make sense of the world, and how we can understand their function in a radically new way. Whether you’re a student, activist, or citizen looking to see beyond the headlines, this book will transform how you understand the media—and the world around you.

Early in the year 1789 the French nation found itself in deep financial embarrassment; and this was speedily followed by calls for an issue of paper money. By August 1, 1795, some six years later, the gold 25 francs coin was worth in paper, 920 francs; on September 1st, 1,200 francs; on November 1st, 2,600 francs; on December 1st, 3,050 francs. In February, 1796, it was worth 7,200 francs or one franc in gold was worth 288 francs in paper. Prices of all commodities went up nearly in proportion. This story, of how a first world nation turned to paper money and destroyed itself, its people and its economy in the process, even arguably setting in motion the rise to power of Napoleon Bonaparte, is told in this book by Andrew Dickson White, academic, ambassador and author. As ever, history remains our best guide of what the future holds, and, considering our Fiat money system today, sounds a warning call that should be heeded.

BLACK & WHITE VERSION Peercoin (PPC) is a decentralised cryptocurrency similar to Bitcoin. It was the first cryptocurrency to introduce a new form of timestamping (proof of stake) that allows users of the wallet to receive a 1% rate of return on their holdings per year. This book is a detailed history of the first year of Peercoin up to the 19th of August 2013 (the time at which the blockchain had been usable for one year by the general public).

Some technologies change industries. Others change civilization. Is Bitcoin simply a new form of money—or is it redefining the relationship between individuals, property, and the State? In The Philosophy of Bitcoin, philosopher and legal scholar Álvaro D. María explores the deeper ideas behind one of the most significant technological innovations of the modern era. Rather than focusing on markets or price movements, he examines Bitcoin through the lenses of philosophy, political theory, economics, history, and law, revealing why its greatest impact may extend far beyond finance. Originally published in Spanish to widespread acclaim, this influential work introduced readers to a new way of thinking about Bitcoin: not merely as a digital asset, but as a civilizational innovation capable of transforming institutions, incentives, and the organization of society itself. Inside, you'll explore: • The philosophical foundations of money and property • How Bitcoin challenges traditional ideas about the State and political power • Why technological breakthroughs have historically transformed civilization • The evolution of individual sovereignty in the digital age • New models of cooperation, governance, and social coordination • Why Bitcoin may represent one of the defining innovations of the twenty-first century Drawing on centuries of philosophical thought while remaining firmly grounded in modern economics and technology, D. María makes complex ideas accessible without sacrificing intellectual depth. His work bridges philosophy, law, economics, and political theory into a compelling examination of the ideas reshaping our world. Praised by economists, entrepreneurs, scholars, and Bitcoin pioneers—including Samson Mow, Gabriel Kurman, Prince Philip of Serbia, Javier Bastardo, and Lunaticoin—The Philosophy of Bitcoin has become one of the most respected philosophical works in Bitcoin literature. Whether you're interested in Bitcoin, political philosophy, Austrian economics, law, history, or the future of civilization, this book offers a thoughtful framework for understanding why Bitcoin has become far more than a monetary innovation. A lasting addition to the library of anyone seeking to understand the philosophical foundations of Bitcoin and the future of human freedom.

Discover the life-changing wisdom of one of history's greatest leaders with the First Modern, Best Selling version of Meditations by Marcus Aurelius: Adapted for the Contemporary Reader by James Harris. In this powerful book, you will learn how to improve your life through Stoic philosophy and unlock your full potential. ★ Discover the power of self-reflection and personal growth with Marcus Aurelius's 12 books of Meditations. ★ Experience the timeless wisdom of Stoicism in a modern and easy-to-read format. ✓ This book includes: ★ Insights on how to find inner peace and maintain a positive outlook. ★ Timeless wisdom on living a fulfilling and meaningful life. Don't miss out on this opportunity to learn from one of history's greatest leaders. ENJOY ♥